Author: Ling Zhijun
The article is picked from " ups and downs " , ling Zhijun is written, people's Daily press is published
1996 year old end, bright red 镕 base the Vice Prime Minister sees a stage play in Beijing " business Yang " . According to the message above newspaper, he is moved for gut place, below mournful tear. Business Yang starts the trend of reform with breathtaking courage, send fetter for bigotry eventually, tearing a person asunder by five carts and dead. Although this matter already went 2000 old, however with Gu Heng today, yan can not make a person sigh with regret.
Bright red 镕 base the actual presider that is Chinese economy overall situation at present. This person gives the most outstanding impression of the outside, be " iron face is merciless " . The United States " news weekly " say he is " China's fiercest boss " . Chinese news agency says him from " right-wing " to members of standing committee of the Political Bureau of Central Committee of Communist Party of China, "Of its span big, the person with firm and indomitable blame not can pass also " . A such people, like except the place that it is affection is moved, have feel and send, can does the tear asperse a theater?
What we want to know now is, "Feeling " from He Lai?
Also be 1996 year old end, bright red 镕 base the report that made economic situation in Beijing, its audience has Beijing party card army of each respect quite a batch of cadres, and the participator of 6 meetings that holding in Beijing, include Chinese article couplet the 6th times countrywide congress, China is made assist the 3rd times Deng Xiaoping builds congress of the 5th whole nation, whole nation conference of job of HongKong and Macow of congress of award of science and technology of seminar of theory of socialism with Chinese feature, whole nation, Bank of China, China is soft scientific learning annual meeting, add up to exceeds 6000 people. About this thing, the information that newspaper used a 300 much words only gives report. The reader if only by this message, can think surely bright red 镕 base did not speak any interesting words to come really to his 6000 much audience. Actually takes a fancy to national thing, be cannot pursue only of the surface lively or of cold and cheerless, in more circumstances, with the behind the curtain joint performance gives completely different drama to come before the stage. Bright red 镕 base this speech, already was duplicated that day tape a certain number of, in central government body wide to send, according to within the party the channel that the file relays, xiao Zhi with more people. I listen in 20 days of listen having good fortune all, think this is bright red 镕 base the most important administration since the economy that the Vice Prime Minister manages the State Council from him works delivers a speech, very vivid, no matter important matter bagatelle, all be in its eye shot and reflection category.
Bright red 镕 base in the Nanhai in Beijing coming by Shanghai December 1991, it is the offerring as a result of Deng Xiaoping allegedly. At that time, the economy of our country is lying the start of rise steeply. Allegedly Deng Xiaoping once was mentioned for many times, bright red 镕 base be " know economy " person, anybody understands his real intention, it is to want Zhu Lai advocate the overall situation of palm China economy.
However bright red 镕 base action reachs square Spring 1993 can real ground to spread out behindhand, the macroscopical adjusting control of administration is in fact come by him design and operation. From begin at that time, up to now two years half, bright red 镕 base had shown it seems that to the control ability of economic overall situation come. Best proof, be pinned economy " big " did not appear however " fall greatly " ; Pinned inflation, dithe best selling modern dining chairsd not see the market is flat however. He drew the experience lesson that 80 time end rectifies to the processing at the beginning of 90 time, its way is obvious a few cleverer.
Actually is macroscopical adjusting control is a quite vague concept, its original idea is to strengthen administration to be in the centralization of state power of economic respect. Because, if fall by authority of administration economy respect, produce the effect of political respect with respect to can implicative ground, still can weaken the central control to the place even. Practice acupuncture of this one party however, including the great issue that handles a side again however: Must not produce conflict with established reform direction already; Cannot of indulgent place influence and interest expand overly, ability eclectically will both photograph is shirt-sleeve.
Bright red 镕 base it is the Communisharrison hot spring public poolt Party the elite among collective of the 3rd acting leader. Look from overall situation, the China of 90 time, already was widely divergent with 50 time, 60 time and the China of 70 time, also be the China of 80 time no longer even. Our country the place of the success of generation leader and error, depend on centralization of state power and volume interest; The place of the success of the 2nd acting leader and error is antipodal, depend on cent counterpoises and distributing benefit. The 3rd generation that is in office now, both neither can resemble generation leader in that way the world of order of interest of volume of centralization of state power, also cannot follow of the 2nd acting leader watch case manufacturerput authority to put profit indulgent all directions. Bright red 镕 base method, be talk things over and compromise, also design a central system that shares influence and interest with the place namely, the part of a mediator acts as between centrally and place. Be like him to be reformed in the 1994 tax systebrass faucetm that lists among the speech. He says, implement minute of tax system, the resistance that comes from a place is very great. Discuss, compromise, talk at long last came down. His place draw up divides the result of tax system, also be the child of an argy-bargy: The finance income before 1994, occupy in the center of 3 into, the place is taken 7 into, government spending is to come over, take in the center of 7 into, the place is taken 3 into; After 1994, administration can get 60% above on name, can occupy even 7 into, can be a basis mutual the compromise between, still must be in the center of among oneself income extract a certain number of returning to return a place, so, the central share that receives actually has about 52% only. Although much, but insufficient still, financial deficit still basically is centrally.
From 3 years the economic circumstances of half is knowable, bright red 镕 base the capacity that controls economic overall situation perfectly, its result is worbrass faucet aerator th while also and proud. The first, invest bulgy inhibition to estate: 1993, countrywide estate investment increased than going up one year 61% , after this rapid and rhythm underground falls: 1994, 30% ; 1995, 17% ; 1996, deduct prices to rise element, 12% . The 2nd, to monetary control: Gave out 120 billion yuan 1992. The entrance imprints in those days bank note machine, imprint desperately money. 1993, sent 153 billion yuan; 1994, 142.4 billion yuan; 1995, 59 billion yuan; 1996, this wanting that control is in 80 billion yuan, send 100 billion yuan later. Bright red 镕 base the explanation says, "Because of agricultural big bumper harvest, did not buy fund " . The 3rd, to agricultural control: 1995 increase production 20 billion kilograms, increase production was gotten greatly 1996 much. Produce inventory exceeds the history top level. The history is highest 80 billion jins, the beginning of the year was 40 billion jins 1996, get on for 90 billion jins now. Bright red 镕 base say: "Statistical department says storehouse is not installed, I say, irrespective, the business of our stop production, half stop production is very much now, can vacate factory building outfit commissariat. " the 4th, to the control of supply demand relations: Now the industrial product of 95% is supply exceeds demand. So bright red 镕 base say: "The thing is much, not not much. Not not much..
Nevertheless, bright red 镕 base those who reveal him still is in on quite old rate cannot relaxed mood. An issue that makes him have a headache most, it is to repeat construction. He says, this is the biggest also be most scabrous. Administration originally a key of economic guiding principle, take care of those who want a project to go well truly namely. Now, bright red 镕 base admit, the country is annual the major project of put into production, have 1/3 the day from start working deficit, because repeat,build without exception. So, repeat construction to be able to make the mainest reason of state-owned company have no way out again. Under cover is returned among this however a bigger crisis, the problem of the finance that also brings by the problem of industry and commerce namely, be like bright red 镕 base say to his audience place: "His product sells do not go out, produce even, have a meal even. Who eats to his meal? Bank. From where does the money of the bank come? It is your money, it is deposit. The money you enterprise of deficit of allowance of go off with, be no good really. " so, bright red 镕 base firm ground advocates a project to also do not go up. He says: "To the country, on you one is wasteful. On you one is wasteful..
In that case bright red 镕 base the with bitter hatred to repeating construction, have how old effect after all at actual condition, had not been sure. He can state only oneself " one knife is cut " be " the advice that serves as an old friend " , among them muzzle, still depend on discussing and rather than to dictate. "There was a planned economy in the past, want me to approve, I am not approved, the bank does not give him money " , zhu Shui, "Now, did not want me to approve, he does him, you do not search when going up, deficit will look for you to save save him. Deficit will look for you to save save him..
modern dining chairsBright red 镕 base it is one of people that economic eye has most in the power center of the Communist Party at present, he understands clearly today the crux of the problem of problem of our country economy, in that case he is impossible again however when solving these crucial point problems do as one wants, even even often against one's will. For instance he knows the whole nation has the productivity that produces per year 30 million color television now, among them the part of 1/3 cannot be sold for the market, i.e. expert place says " superfluous " . Settlement way, have one way only, eliminate bad company namely with good business. Bright red 镕 base discovery, really one is called " long rainbow " the dimensions that the company is expanding him quickly, will own market share very quickly nearly half the number, reason makes if cfree watch caseountless other companies face abyss. According to bright red original idea, he is ought to greatly relaxed. However he is right " long rainbow " the president says: "You are in capitalism is good, superior bad discard. You are more, cost is lower. But my socialism had a headache. The market gives you, my other company is washed-up, look for me to want wage, how do I do? How do I do??
"We are superior bad not discard, still actor or actress finally deeply bad not discard " , bright red 镕 base say.
Original intention repeats construction to eliminate, the result must talk to repeat construction again however. Do Chinese business, no matter how " Cai Ziqing bright annals from tall " , always cannot follow one's inclinations. This is typical.
Bright red 镕 base be in office the tendency slants overweight deal with concrete matters relating to work. He seldom participates in those with ideological the circumstance that is a purpose, it is flower model epigraph for instance, listen to moral report and so on, seldom also be the same as economic problem political problem be pulled again and again. For instance somebody maintains the pillar that state-owned company is socialistic system, and severity is warned, the specific gravity in successive years of state-owned company drops the risk that will surelmodern dining chairsy bring politics, not allow so appeasement. We are fine check bright red 镕 base the way one speaks or what he says, cannot see similar word.
This, say in his report: "Somebody puts forward, state-owned proportion drops, privately owned proportion rises, can did socialism change? I want to answer this question. We tell, be give priority to body with state ownership, either with state-owned make for main body. But I think, state-owned economy should master national economy lifeblood. I came to Beijing 1991. State-owned 1990 make industry occupy 55% , collaboration is made 36% , these two add up, 91% , privately owned and foreign capital are less than 10% . 1995, state-owned contrthe most popular selling norton internet antivirusol industry 34% , town enterprise collaboration is made 36% , privately owned is individual " 3 endowment " occupy 30% . This change is quite big. But have risk? I say. The key depends on economic lifeblood. As to a few those hamburger, film, hairpin, you get a few foreign capital, what concerns? What concerns??
Bright red 镕 base the footing that declares oneself actively on ideological problem and can call a spade a spade, it is not much. Always had read a capital to circulate " book of 10 thousand character " person, metropolis couplet thinks of, bright red 镕 base this one word, it is to be in ground of mild and indirect to reply likely " book of 10 thousand character " censure.
To bright red 镕 base the ability that masters overall situation, newest test is the control to the stock market.
Deep Shanghai stock market soares all the way after entering autumn rise, those who point to go up and trade of dimensions big, make a person mysterious. In the past, one day clinchs a deawatch case openerl 100 million yuan or so, in December, one highest day clinchs a deal many yuan 300. It is so inside the fourth quarter, administration did 3 things. It is legislative firstly, also namely bright red 镕 base be said " rise game regulation rigor " ; It is to punish severely secondly violate compasses; Thirdly, strengthen shareholder risk consciousness. However the indirect interpose of 3 months does not have the effect completely. So, according to bright red 镕 base directive, " People's Daily " news analyst article will be published on December 16. Deep Shanghai stock market expects like place the ground drops in the round as expected, can saying even is to steep fall, till show hang out drops stop board come " avert war " . Bright red 镕 base explain, want not to intervene completely originally, but consider to go up morer, drop lowlier. We think, 1997 new year's day, Spring Festival, " July 1 " , " 15 big " drop come down very bad, drop late be inferior to dropping early, use so " People's Daily " news analyst article. As expected all fronts drops.
But this still is the first bout only. Today Chinese stock market, soare to be no good admittedly, but steep fall also be no good. Bright red 镕 base if has the capacity that masters overall situation really, be about to be in checked of the stock market after soaring, can not make the stock market steeps fall even.
Now bright red 镕 base the biggest difficult problem that faces, also namely we are whole the biggest test that party place faces, still be the problem of a state-owned company. Be in what just go 1996, state-owned company still does not have the elephant of display vigour. The net sales profit ratio of budgetary enterprise reduces historical nadir: first quarter, the deficit specified number of state-owned company exceeded profit first, it is to be net loss caustic. First half of the year, gain of every yuan of sale is 0.9 minutes only (was 5.5 minutes 1994; 1995 about 3 minutes of) . Second half of the year has a bit restore, but annual add up to, the profit of business of industry of many 30 independent business accounting dropped about 20% , its China had company profit to drop 55% . Add up to the deficit total of enterprise of this year of deficit, 28.6 times was 1985. One this year the income tax of foreign capital enterprise and Chinese-foreign joint venture grew 40% , individual income tax grew 46% , and state-owned enterprise income tax appeared to enjoy growth as a result of the go from bad to worse of gain circumstance however.
State-owned bank has begun to clear the bad debt of state-owned industry and commerce. 1996, strong sold about 20 billion yuan; But for bad to the huge bad debt of state-owned company Zhang, it is an utterly inadequate method in dealing with a severe situation really. Look, 1997 even draw up bigger plan to what sell bad Zhang.
The money in governmental hand ought come from the enterprise, the state-owend enterprise relies on to borrow money to get along, the government is forced to rely on to borrow money to live. 1996, the national debt that the government issues is added reach 197.9 billion yuan, among income of every 100 yuan of finance, having about 20 yuan is borrowed. This is 80 time since issue national debt the 10th times. Before 9 times add up to had borrowed about 500 billion the most popular north face shirtsyuan of national debt, compare more than. Among them 1994 102.8 billion yuan; 1995 151 billion yuan.
The enterprise can borrow money to be not returned, country however cannot, so, among new 1996 debt the part of about 50% , go off with returns old debt.
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If we have the courage of business Yang and the resistance that encounters without business Yang, is reform can a few more successful? Is the case of state-owned company can betterer? Is the safe state that finance state of the country also is a country at the same time can betterer?
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